Point Of Contact
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 86
Yarmouth · Goffs Two Million Series Handicap · 1m 1f 21y
#3
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Salisbury | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sandown | 2 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Doncaster | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 31/07/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 22/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 13/09/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 62% | -0.15 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.18 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 13% | -0.77 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |