IvyArcIvyArc
1

Tycoon

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 93

Yarmouth · Goffs Two Million Series Handicap · 1m 1f 21y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden winner for the Gosden stable and plenty of useful placed efforts in handicaps since, runner-up over 1½m at York under Toby Moore in July. Too free to fully see it out over the same C&D 4 weeks ago and now drops in trip/grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Royal Ascot 21/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 97 · 1m1f212y GF 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2025 · OR 97 par21/062OR 973 @ York 07/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 96 · 1m2f56y Gd 137 · beat its mark07/09/2025 · OR 96 par3 @ Chelmsford City 27/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 95 · 1m2f Std 137 · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 95 par27/113OR 952 @ Newmarket 14/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 94 · 1m Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 94 · 1m1f GF 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 94 par2/052OR 942 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 94 · 1m2f17y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ Ascot 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 94 · 1m3f211y GF 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 94 par11/072OR 943 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 94 · 1m3f188y Goo 142 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 94 · 1m3f188y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 94 par21/082OR 94projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21York27th6th+1
2026-07-25York32nd2nd0
2026-07-11Ascot23rd2nd+1
2026-06-05Epsom Downs213th12th+1
2026-05-02Newmarket23rd2nd+1
2026-04-14Newmarket25th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0614/0411/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength51%

Delivery trend -3.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/06/20258th18/15%50%+0.45
07/09/20256th22/10%55%+0.55
27/11/20257th4/179%50%-0.29
14/04/20265th20/10%56%+0.56
02/05/20263rd22/10%82%+0.82
05/06/202613th10/147%20%-0.27
11/07/20263rd10/382%71%-0.11
25/07/20262nd6/168%89%+0.20
21/08/20267th12/137%60%+0.23