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9

Caraway

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 62

Yarmouth · British EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 104y

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

25%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Resumed her progress when off the mark at Thirsk (1½m) in May and has run to a similar level all 3 starts since, undone by a slow pace when second over C&D 7 weeks ago, finishing best. Clearly still mileage in her from this sort of mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength24%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 28/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 12828/0842 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m13y Std 12810/0346 @ Wolverhampton 06/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 62 · 1m4f51y Std 132 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Wolverhampton 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 58 · 1m4f51y Std 134 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 58 par8/056OR 585 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 58 · 1m4f8y Goo 123 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Nottingham 11/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 63 · 1m6f Sft 135 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 63 par11/066OR 635 @ Leicester 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 63 · 1m3f179y Goo 128 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Yarmouth 23/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 63 · 1m3f104y GF 131 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 63 par23/076OR 63projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Yarmouth62nd4th−2
2026-07-22Leicester52nd3rd−1
2026-06-11Nottingham63rd5th−2
2026-05-16Thirsk51st2nd−1
2026-05-08Wolverhampton66th8th−2
2026-04-06Wolverhampton64th6th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/086/0411/0623/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength51%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/08/20257th15/261%40%-0.21
27/09/20257th18/15%14%+0.09
10/03/20266th11/142%17%-0.25
06/04/20264th17/255%50%-0.05
08/05/20266th6/594%17%-0.77
16/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
11/06/20263rd11/893%71%-0.21
22/07/20262nd11/1094%50%-0.44
23/07/20262nd10/1195%75%-0.20