1
Nowshesdancing
4yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 76
Yarmouth · British EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 104y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Newbury | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Goodwood | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Leicester | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Wetherby | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-28 | Dundalk | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -22.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 08/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |