7
Willow Wood
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 70
Yarmouth · British EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 104y
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-26 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-02 | Nottingham | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend -13.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/11/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 16/5 | 83% | 100% | +0.17 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |