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11

Molly Mac

3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 64

Yarmouth · Eastern Power Systems Fillies' Handicap · 6f 3y

#7

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finally off the mark at Nottingham in July and fully confirmed that improvement when following up at Newmarket 2 weeks later, produced to lead final 1f. Too keen without cover when coming unstuck in her hat-trick bid and a hood is now reapplied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 25/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 55 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark25/11/2025 · OR 55 par25/116OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 15/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 54 · 1m142y Std 134 · beat its mark15/12/2025 · OR 54 par6 @ Yarmouth 10/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 54 · 7f3y Sft 129 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 54 par10/066OR 546 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 54 · 5f21y GF 126 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 54 · 6f20y Std 128 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 54 par7/076OR 545 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 54 · 7f36y Std 119 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Nottingham 30/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 54 · 6f18y Goo 134 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 54 par30/076OR 545 @ Newmarket 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 60 · 6f GF 126 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Windsor 24/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 64 · 6f12y Goo 135 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 64 par24/086OR 64projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Windsor65th6th−1
2026-08-14Newmarket51st1st0
2026-07-30Nottingham61st2nd−1
2026-07-17Wolverhampton56th6th0
2026-07-07Wolverhampton62nd3rd−1
2026-06-29Windsor64th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1129/0630/0724/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength58%

Delivery trend -8.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/11/20253rd13/266%75%+0.09
15/12/20253rd25/10%75%+0.75
10/06/20262nd25/10%92%+0.92
29/06/20264th18/15%75%+0.70
07/07/20262nd9/153%89%+0.36
17/07/20266th14/126%50%+0.24
30/07/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
14/08/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
24/08/20265th11/893%50%-0.43