13:10 · Bellewstown

Bluegrass Horse Feed Handicap (0-60)

7f 195yGoing TBC3YO onlyTURFHandicap9 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 58
2/1
Nephin Mountain silks

Michael Mulvany

3yo Gelding · 10-0

Supremacy - Balqaa (Invasor)

Gary Carroll60%M Mulvany
165134
6.0

Doubled his tally in a higher grade at Navan (1m) in late-August. Subsequent third there has worked out very well and confirmed himself still in fine heart when 2 lengths fourth at Punchestown (9f) latest. Makes appeal returning to 3-y-o company.

Class Advantage

20/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par20/072/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/08 · mark par12/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/08 · mark par27/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/08 · mark par5/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par15/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above15/09 · mark par15/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 195y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%20/07Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 71%12/08Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 90%5/09Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 75%15/09
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +31.5%Ahead 3/4
6
3
OR 48
8/1
Spiritofthedawn silks

Mrs F Hand

3yo Filly · 9-4

Dawn Approach - Inis Fail (Showcasing)

Robert Whearty60%0/4F G Hand60%
00027
4.0
Tongue strap

Well positioned/fared much better than previously when runner-up on handicap bow at Navan (1m). Form has taken a few knocks and now drops back down in trip having failed to confirm that apparent improvement at Punchestown (9f) last time.

Class Advantage

12/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a12/0619/04 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a5/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a2/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par15/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/09 · mark par15/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 195y · 80%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 11 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 11 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 38%12/06Pos 11 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 57%19/04Pos 11 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 9%5/05Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 93%2/09Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 54%15/09
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +42.7%Ahead 4/4
5
2
OR 49
7/1
Glen Breeze silks

Pony Up Syndicate

3yo Gelding · 9-5

Royal Lytham - Iseebreeze (Frozen Power)

Ben Coen70%P Magee70%
165905
2.0
Cheek piecesTongue strap

Confirmed previous promise when winning in this grade at Limerick (7f, good to firm) in July. Back on a handy mark if building on his latest 3¾-length fifth at Dundalk (1m) 6 days ago and still relatively unexposed over this trip.

Class Advantage

11/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par11/0725/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par5/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/08 · mark par31/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/08 · mark par5/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par25/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/09 · mark par25/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 195y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%11/07Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 64%5/08Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 11 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 41%5/09Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 69%25/09
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength78%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +12.3%Ahead 2/4
3
5
OR 56
9/2
Big Bill silks

Ms M Connolly

3yo Gelding · 9-12

Wooded - Manadream (Oasis Dream)

Reese Holohan−5lbAidan Melia60%
07605
2.0
1st Cheekpieces +2

Low-mileage 3-y-o. Fared better than previously up in trip when 5½-lengths fifth of 16 at Down Royal (11f) on return, still not looking entirely straightforward despite having been gelded. No surprise to see headgear added back down in trip.

Class Advantage

2/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a2/0910/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a4/10 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a27/10 · C6 · finish vs mark below27/10 · mark par28/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above28/09 · mark par28/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 195y · 80%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 11 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 9%2/09Pos 7 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 33%10/09Pos 6 · SP 250/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 250/1 | Actual: 58%4/10Pos 10 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 36%27/10Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 69%28/09
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +47.8%Ahead 4/4
7
4
OR 45
33/1
Stonyfalls silks

Paul Traynor

3yo Filly · 9-1

Supremacy - Maria Kristina (Footstepsinthesand)

Nicola Burns−5lbPaul Traynor
096930
4.0

Made more impact than previously when 6 lengths third over C&D on penultimate start. Has been given a break since her subsequent non-staying effort at Killarney (11.5f) and has promising 5-lb apprentice booked for return.

Class Advantage

29/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a29/097/11 · C8 · finish vs mark below7/11 · mark par29/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/05 · mark par19/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par2/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par13/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par13/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 195y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 12 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 0%29/09Pos 9 · SP 300/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 300/1 | Actual: 27%Pos 6 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 62%29/05Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 86%2/07Pos 11 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 23%13/07
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength57%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +47.6%Ahead 4/4
2
6
OR 57
6/1
Glasarmi silks

P R Dowling & Ms G Brennan

3yo Filly · 9-13

Invincible Army - Forever Mine (Iffraaj)

Rory Mulligan60%−5lbRory Devine
54506
2.0

Gambled-on fourth at Gowran on second career start. Chased home a couple of subsequent winners at Limerick later in June (only previous start on soft). No impact in couple of handicap starts since, however, could be worth a chance in calmer waters under these conditions.

Class Advantage

5/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a5/051/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a19/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a22/08 · C7 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par1/09 · C6 · finish vs mark below1/09 · mark par1/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 195y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 64%5/05Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 70%1/06Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 67%19/06Pos 25 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 25 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 8%22/08Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 50%1/09
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength91%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +19.6%Ahead 3/4
4
7
OR 52
8/1
Matties Point silks

Will Mundow & Gerard Connolly

3yo Gelding · 9-8

Almanzor - Volunteer Point (Footstepsinthesand)

Billy Lee60%0/1W McCreery
400
2.0

Half-brother to useful 7f winner. Hinted at ability under considerate handling on debut at Dundalk (1¼m). No show at long odds in Leopardstown/Punchestown maidens since. Type to do better now tackling a low-grade handicap for in-form stable.

Class Advantage

12/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a12/076/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a6/0815/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a15/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 195y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 40%12/07Pos 12 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 15%6/08Pos 13 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 8%15/09
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength47%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +21.0%Ahead 3/3
9
8
OR 40
8/1
Arizona Star silks

Raymond McMahon

3yo Filly · 8-10

Arizona - Bequia (Helmet)

Wesley Joyce0/1M Mulvany
063850
2.0

Maiden who disputed favouritism when beaten 5½ lengths in this grade at Clonmel (1¼m) latest. Back down in trip on just fourth start current yard.

Class Advantage

18/05 · C6 · finish vs mark below18/05 · mark par18/0520/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par8/07 · C7 · finish vs mark above8/07 · mark par30/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par5/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par16/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above16/09 · mark par16/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 195y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 11 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 17%18/05Pos 6 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 44%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 75%8/07Pos 8 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 8 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 53%Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 80%5/09Pos 11 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 11 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 23%16/09
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength48%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.5%Ahead 2/4
8
9
OR 42
25/1
Thumama Sands silks

Al Thumama Racing

3yo Gelding · 8-12

Footstepsinthesand - Ghalia Al Thumama (Pivotal)

Patrick McGettigan−5lbA McGuinness
00090
2.0

Lightly-raced maiden from capable yard. Has little form in 5 starts to date, though.

Class Advantage

5/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a5/0619/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a8/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a25/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par30/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par30/08projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 195y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 14 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 0%5/06Pos 11 · SP 300/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 300/1 | Actual: 33%19/06Pos 12 · SP 300/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 300/1 | Actual: 21%8/07Pos 9 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 38%25/07Pos 15 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 15 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 7%30/08
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength26%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +25.0%Ahead 4/4