16:20 · Chepstow

Wasdell Group Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap

1m 4fGoing TBCClass 53YO plusTURFHandicap7 runners
Ordered by projected finish
5
Top Pick1
OR 724/1
Aravalli silks

Mr Keiran Johns

3yo Filly · 9-3

Australia - Kalsara (Muhaarar)

Taylor Fisher70%2/4J Tickle70%
449114
7.0

Lightly raced 3-y-o filly. On the up when winning back-to-back course handicaps last month. Came up short when bidding for a hat-trick (under a penalty) in an ordinary handicap at Sandown (1¼m) subsequently. She'll need to improve for the return to this track/longer trip.

Class Advantage

3/04 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a3/043/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a4/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below4/06 · mark par8/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/07 · mark par16/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/07 · mark par23/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/07 · mark par23/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength15%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 67%3/04Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 0%4/06Pos 1 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%16/07Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 50%23/07
Projected finish1st of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength99%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
Market Fav3
OR 744/5
Curran silks

Crown Connoisseurs

5yo Gelding · 10-1

Gleneagles - Tipitena (Camelot)

Charlie Tucker70%−7lbB R Millman70%
501651
6.0Class ↓3

Recorded 2 wins from 5 starts for current yard, latterly when making the most of a good opportunity at Salisbury (1¾m). Apprentice takes over from Oisin Murphy and this looks tougher on a rare outing over 1½m.

Class Advantage

11/10 · C5 · finish vs mark below11/10 · mark par11/1015/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below15/05 · mark par5/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par27/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par11/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par21/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/07 · mark par21/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength52%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 5 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 20%11/10Pos 14 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 7%Pos 1 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 100%5/06Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 17%Pos 5 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 5 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 20%11/07Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Actual: 100%21/07
Projected finish2nd of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
1
4
OR 759/4
Double Red silks

Mr T A F Frost

5yo Gelding · 10-2

Belardo - Red Boots (Verglas)

Rob Hornby60%0/1H Candy70%
518442
6.0Class ↓3
Cheek pieces

Frequent slow starter who made a winning return at Lingfield in April. Back to somewhere near his best with cheekpieces refitted when close second of 4 in a slightly better event at Salisbury (1¼m) latest. Still relatively unexposed over this longer trip and is entitled to run a big race.

Class Advantage

2/10 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above2/10 · mark par2/1020/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/04 · mark par9/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below9/05 · mark par8/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above8/06 · mark par1/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength82%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 60%2/10Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 8 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 8 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%9/05Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 67%1/07Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 67%25/07
Projected finish3rd of 7
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
2
OR 7240/1
Oasis Sunrise silks

In For A Pound

4yo Filly · 9-13

Bated Breath - Sunrise Rose (Oasis Dream)

Ray Dawson60%0/4G Harris
211433
8.0Going 8.0Class ↓4

Versatile filly. Won 3 times this season (including over C&D) and looked back on song when 3¾ lengths third of 15 in a better race at Ascot last time. Similar performance should see her go close.

Class Advantage

22/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/05 · mark par22/0529/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above29/05 · mark par13/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par20/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par3/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength49%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 90%22/05Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 1 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 100%13/06Pos 4 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 4 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 40%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 50%3/07Pos 3 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 86%25/07
Projected finish4th of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength31%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
6
OR 7211/2
Virtue Diligence silks

Virtue Assets Ltd

3yo Gelding · 9-3

Ulysses - Echelon (Danehill)

Harry Davies60%Mrs A J Perrett
9834
5.0

Low-mileage 3-y-o. Built on his qualifying run when 2¾ lengths fourth of 6 on handicap bow at Salisbury. That looks solid form for the grade (fifth won since), and he's weighted to go well off 2 lb lower.

Class Advantage

24/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a24/098/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a8/0630/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a30/0625/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move1
Strength64%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 25%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 20%24/09Pos 8 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 46%8/06Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 67%30/06Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 40%25/07
Projected finish5th of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength63%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
5
OR 7214/1
Polemon silks

Mr Nigel Berbillion

7yo Gelding · 9-13

Frankel - Very Good News (Empire Maker)

William CarverTim Vaughan80%
094447
4.0Going 8.0Class ↓4
Tongue strap1st Visor +2

Once-fairly useful performer in this sphere for Denis Hogan. Discouraging effort over hurdles on what was effectively his stable debut/reappearance at Newton Abbot in early-June. Something to prove reverted to the Flat in more severe headgear.

Class Advantage

2/03 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a2/0314/03 · C8 · finish vs mark below14/03 · mark par3/04 · C8 · finish vs mark below3/04 · mark par17/04 · C8 · finish vs mark below17/04 · mark par6/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below6/05 · mark par15/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below15/05 · mark par15/05projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move2
Strength33%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 76%2/03Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 40%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 67%3/04Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 88%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 25%6/05Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 50%15/05
Projected finish6th of 7
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength9%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
7
OR 7016/1
Cosmo Brown silks

Foursome Thoroughbreds

3yo Gelding · 9-1

Ghaiyyath - Cosmic Approach (New Approach)

Lewis Edmunds60%0/4W Muir & C Grassick
8836
4.0Class ↓3
Hood

Ghaiyyath colt showed improved form when third (ahead of trio of next-time-out winners) on qualifying run at Leicester (1¼m). Didn't build on that up in trip/under more testing conditions at Newbury (1½m) on handicap bow. Not ruled out if resuming progress following 8 weeks off.

Class Advantage

16/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/042/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a2/0525/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a25/0511/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/06 · mark par11/06projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move2
Strength69%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 25%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 22%16/04Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 13%2/05Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 82%25/05Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 17%11/06
Projected finish7th of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength46%
ExpectedActualTrend