17:30 · Chepstow

Dunraven Windows Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap

5f 16yGoing TBCClass 43YO plusTURFHandicap7 runners
Ordered by projected finish
6
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 6715/8
Level Up silks

Mr E A R Morgans & Partner

7yo Gelding · 9-3

Hot Streak - Kamarinskaya (Storm Cat)

Miss Amy Tucker−7lbP D Evans80%
352221
8.0Going 8.0
Blinkers

Gained reward for his consistency by getting off the mark for the season in a C&D 0-65 last time. Step up in class/4-lb rise may be enough to prevent a follow up.

Class Advantage

26/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/05 · mark par26/0515/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/06 · mark par17/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above17/06 · mark par28/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above28/06 · mark par20/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par24/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par24/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 60%26/05Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 67%17/06Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 75%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 89%20/07Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%24/07
Projected finish1st of 7
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength80%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
3
OR 695/1
Control Room silks

Winners Circle Racing

3yo Filly · 9-2

Land Force - Call Sign Charlie (Arakan)

S C Cronin60%0/1−5lbG Harris
921232
7.0Going 8.0

Consistent filly. Split a trio of next-time-out winners on stable debut at Windsor before chasing home one on the up at Nottingham last time. Step up in grade demands more, though.

Class Advantage

19/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a19/099/10 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a28/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/10 · mark par22/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/05 · mark par27/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par18/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par18/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 27%19/09Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 83%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%28/10Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 88%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 67%27/06Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 83%18/07
Projected finish2nd of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength75%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
2
OR 7022/1
Over Spiced silks

Clancy, Coles & Colthart

4yo Filly · 9-6

Adaay - Alice's Dancer (Clodovil)

Ray Dawson60%2/8G Harris60%
554332
7.0Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

In-form C&D winner who went close in a race to suit (despite the worst of the draw) at Chester last time. She's paying the price for her consistency, though, still 3 lb higher than her latest success at Bath in May.

Class Advantage

11/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/05 · mark par11/0526/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below26/05 · mark par29/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/05 · mark par12/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par2/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par25/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 33%11/05Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 25%29/05Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 71%2/07Pos 2 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 90%25/07
Projected finish3rd of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength45%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
4
OR 779/2
Solar Edge silks

Taylor,hodges,mason

4yo Gelding · 9-13

Havana Grey - Heavenly Edge (Royal Applause)

Gina Mangan60%3/12C Mason
925127
6.0

Nearly made it 2-2 for the year in this grade at Windsor prior to a forgivable effort when caught wide at Lingfield last time. He's 1-1 in handicaps over C&D and should go well for yard enjoying fine season with its sprinters.

Class Advantage

8/11 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above8/11 · mark par8/1120/11 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/11 · mark par3/12 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/12 · mark par27/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/04 · mark par1/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above1/06 · mark par6/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par6/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength33%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 11%8/11Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 89%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 50%3/12Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 86%1/06Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 25%6/07
Projected finish4th of 7
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength60%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
5
OR 755/1
Moe's Legacy silks

Cdm Media Usa Inc

5yo Mare · 9-11

Havana Grey - Powerful Dream (Frozen Power)

D EganR Harris60%
374252
6.0
Visor

Has gone close a few times since winning on reappearance at Wolverhampton in March, latterly when ½-length second at Windsor on return from 10 weeks off. That form has been franked, and she makes appeal off an unchanged mark.

Class Advantage

30/03 · C4 · finish vs mark above30/03 · mark par30/0317/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above17/04 · mark par27/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/04 · mark par29/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/04 · mark par22/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above22/05 · mark par27/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 71%30/03Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 40%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 50%27/04Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 80%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 20%22/05Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 90%27/07
Projected finish5th of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength48%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
7
OR 7414/1
Alkuwarrior silks

Mr Brian Hicks

3yo Gelding · 9-7

Alkumait - Elegant Peace (Intense Focus)

Rose Dawes−5lbC Mason60%
990157
3.0Class ↓3
Cheek pieces

Transformed by first-time cheekpieces when doubling his tally in 8-runner handicap at Ffos Las (5f, soft) in early-June. Hasn't proved as effective under less testing since and Solar Edge looks the stable's leading hope.

Class Advantage

18/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below18/08 · mark par18/0827/04 · C4 · finish vs mark below27/04 · mark par23/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below23/05 · mark par4/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par27/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below27/06 · mark par27/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength14%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%18/08Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 14 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%23/05Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 33%27/06Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 40%27/07
Projected finish6th of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength65%
ExpectedActualTrend
1
6
OR 782/1
Rogue Bullet silks

The Rogues Gallery

4yo Gelding · 10-0

Mehmas - Hope And Faith (Zebedee)

Harry Davies60%James Owen60%
065143
6.0
Cheek pieces

Looked well ahead of his mark when making a winning start for this yard at Brighton in June. Excuses at Lingfield prior to finishing solid 4½ lengths third in slightly better race at Newmarket (runner-up an improved winner since). Handicapper has given him a chance and he's fancied to capitalise.

Class Advantage

2/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above2/08 · mark par2/0824/10 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/10 · mark par29/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below29/04 · mark par21/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above21/06 · mark par27/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below27/06 · mark par17/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par17/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 10 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 31%2/08Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 20%29/04Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 4 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 25%27/06Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 67%17/07
Projected finish7th of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength45%
ExpectedActualTrend