18:05 · Chepstow

Happy Birthday Colin Spencer Handicap

1m 14yGoing TBCClass 43YO plusTURFHandicap7 runners
Ordered by projected finish
6
Top Pick1
OR 686/1
Spirit Of The Bay silks

Mr D A Poole

8yo Mare · 9-2

Cable Bay - Decorative (Danehill Dancer)

Taylor Fisher70%1/6J L Flint60%
944721
8.0Class ↓2
Cheek pieces

Showed all of her quirks when narrow runner-up at Ffos Las on penultimate start. Benefitted from the stands rail when readily notching a third C&D success last time. Probably vulnerable off 4 lb higher in a better race, even if on another going day.

Class Advantage

9/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/10 · mark par9/1021/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/05 · mark par14/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/06 · mark par27/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below27/06 · mark par14/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/07 · mark par24/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par24/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 20%9/10Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 70%Pos 4 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 75%14/06Pos 7 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 7 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 88%14/07Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%24/07
Projected finish1st of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength88%
ExpectedActualTrend
1
3
OR 825/1
Talis Evolvere silks

Mrs B Austin & Partner

6yo Gelding · 10-2

Awtaad - My Henrietta (Henrythenavigator)

S C Cronin60%0/1−5lbR Hannon80%
808276
3.0Class ↓2

Nearly doubled his tally for the year in a higher grade on the all-weather in March. Has been running respectably on turf without scaling those heights and benefits from a fairly significant drop in class here.

Class Advantage

3/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/04 · mark par3/0416/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par25/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/05 · mark par12/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par20/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below20/06 · mark par18/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par18/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move1
Strength54%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 8 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 36%3/04Pos 11 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 8 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 8 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 22%25/05Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 86%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 40%20/06Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 38%18/07
Projected finish2nd of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength40%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
4
OR 6811/1
Auburn Avenue silks

Burnham P & D Ltd

5yo Mare · 9-2

Phoenix Of Spain - Bint Malyana (Bahamian Bounty)

Millie Wonnacott60%−5lbJ L Flint
472871
6.0

Opened her account at the eighteenth attempt (third start for current yard) in decisive fashion here (7f) latest. She'll benefit from the return to further, though rise in grade/lack of obvious pace in the race may find her out.

Class Advantage

16/08 · C7 · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par16/0828/08 · C7 · finish vs mark below28/08 · mark par29/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above29/10 · mark par4/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par7/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/07 · mark par24/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par24/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 85%16/08Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 92%29/10Pos 8 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 8 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 30%Pos 7 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 45%7/07Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%24/07
Projected finish3rd of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength84%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
2
OR 8122/1
Revelance silks

Mr J C Smith

4yo Filly · 10-1

Blue Point - Mujabaha (Redoute's Choice)

Edward GreatrexR M Beckett80%
123976
3.0Going 8.0Class ↓2

Only denied a hat-trick by a now-useful one at York last September. Looked rusty when all the rage in the betting at Kempton on reappearance before finishing down the field in a traditionally strong fillies handicap at Ascot last time. Worth another chance with sights lowered.

Class Advantage

31/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par31/077/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par4/10 · C4 · finish vs mark above4/10 · mark par1/11 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/11 · mark par29/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above29/06 · mark par11/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par11/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength52%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 4/7 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Actual: 100%31/07Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 89%Pos 3 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 3 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 60%4/10Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 20%Pos 7 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 7 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 54%29/06Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 38%11/07
Projected finish4th of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
5
OR 7717/2
Nakaaha silks

Mr Ronald Davies & Mrs Candida Davies

4yo Filly · 9-11

Bated Breath - Naqaawa (Shamardal)

D Egan3/6G Harris
255610
4.0
Hood

Proved better than ever when smooth-travelling winner of 1m handicap at Bath in early-July. That form has taken a few knocks, and she failed to give her running under a penalty at Newbury (reported to be showing signs of heat stress) 7 days on.

Class Advantage

27/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/04 · mark par27/0423/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above23/05 · mark par4/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par23/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/06 · mark par1/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/07 · mark par9/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below9/07 · mark par9/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 80%27/04Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 60%4/06Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 55%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%1/07Pos 12 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 12 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 0%9/07
Projected finish5th of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength32%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
Market Fav6
OR 732/1
Windbreaker silks

Ace Stud

3yo Colt · 9-0

Sea The Stars - Cloudy Dawn (Kodiac)

Harry Davies60%0/1W J Haggas60%
533426
4.0
Cheek pieces

Lightly-raced son of Sea The Stars (cost 375,000 gns). Went close to breaking his duck at Wolverhampton (9.5f) in late-June. Drop back in trip may help having raced freely in cheekpieces (retained) in a lower grade at Newbury (1¼m) latest. Least exposed runner but has been expensive to follow.

Class Advantage

1/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a1/1218/12 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a21/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a18/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/06 · mark par28/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/06 · mark par9/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below9/07 · mark par9/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 56%1/12Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 75%Pos 3 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 3 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 60%21/05Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 63%Pos 2 · SP 9/5 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 9/5 | Actual: 89%28/06Pos 6 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 6 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 17%9/07
Projected finish6th of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength37%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
7
OR 8115/2
Serenity Blue silks

Mr Peter Done

4yo Gelding · 10-1

Lope De Vega - Moi Meme (Teofilo)

Lewis Edmunds60%James Horton60%
093004
3.0Class ↓2
Cheek pieces

Recorded back-to-back 1¼m novice victories at the start of last summer. Back to form for the addition of cheekpieces when beaten less than 3 lengths at Doncaster (1¼m) latest, the way he travelled suggesting drop back in trip may suit. Needs considering off 2 lb lower mark.

Class Advantage

31/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par31/0720/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/09 · mark par6/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/04 · mark par9/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above9/05 · mark par31/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below31/05 · mark par3/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par3/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move1
Strength42%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 16 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 16 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 12%31/07Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 75%6/04Pos 10 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 10 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 31%Pos 11 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 11 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 9%31/05Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 57%3/07
Projected finish7th of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength15%
ExpectedActualTrend