18:40 · Chepstow

LSL Racing Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap

7f 16yGoing TBCClass 53YO onlyTURFHandicap7 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 698/15
Clementines Star silks

Star Racing Club Limited

3yo Filly · 9-8

A'ali - Blue Geranium (Dansili)

William Carver1/4D & C Kubler60%
33321
8.0

Front runner improved to get off the mark with something to spare at Thirsk (7f) last time. She's far from exposed on turf and may well follow up off a lenient opening mark.

Class Advantage

19/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a19/0917/11 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a5/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/07 · mark par16/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/07 · mark par16/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength27%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 16y · 80%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 82%19/09Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 60%17/11Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 80%13/06Pos 2 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 2 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 91%5/07Pos 1 · SP 8/15 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 8/15 | Actual: 100%16/07
Projected finish1st of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
2
OR 675/2
Jackabi silks

Mr Paul Williams

3yo Gelding · 9-6

Hello Youmzain - Countryside (Motivator)

Rob Hornby60%M G Rimell60%
224051
7.0
1st Tongue Strap +2

Free-going sort who opened his account in maiden handicap over C&D in late-June. Has since left Ian Williams and has 2-lb rise/better opposition to contend with on stable debut.

Class Advantage

8/11 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above8/11 · mark par8/115/12 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/12 · mark par16/12 · C5 · finish vs mark below16/12 · mark par23/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/05 · mark par12/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par27/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par27/06projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength52%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 75%8/11Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 67%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 0%16/12Pos 12 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 15%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 43%12/06Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%27/06
Projected finish2nd of 7
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength81%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
3
OR 652/1
Espona Bay silks

Amphitheatre Racing Limited

3yo Gelding · 9-4

New Bay - Grammata (Twilight Son)

Christian Howarth60%−3lbS Dixon
431335
5.0Class ↓3

Back on same mark as when successful in this grade at Wolverhampton (7f) in May. Had been holding his form well before paying the price for overexuberance at Lingfield (6f) last time. Will need to settle better faced with stiffer test of stamina here.

Class Advantage

5/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/03 · mark par5/0321/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/03 · mark par18/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/05 · mark par15/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/06 · mark par17/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength65%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 70%5/03Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 71%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%18/05Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 75%17/07Pos 5 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 5 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 0%25/07
Projected finish3rd of 7
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength81%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
4
OR 5614/1
Grand Vista silks

Muir Racing Partnership - Epsom Downs

3yo Colt · 8-9

Far Above - Very Nice (Daylami)

Lewis Edmunds60%0/3W Muir & C Grassick60%
550383
4.0
Cheek pieces

Maiden who again looked a hard ride when down the field at Wolverhampton last month but did at least travel a little better and quickly returned to form in first-time cheekpieces when third at Ffos Las (7.4f) on Tuesday. Each-way possibilities again.

Class Advantage

19/11 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a19/1111/05 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a9/06 · C6 · finish vs mark below9/06 · mark par8/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/07 · mark par21/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/07 · mark par4/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/08 · mark par4/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 56%19/11Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 64%Pos 11 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 11 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 0%9/06Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 8 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 8 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 22%21/07Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 75%4/08
Projected finish4th of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength18%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
6
OR 5513/2
Fullstop silks

Foxhills Racing Limited

3yo Gelding · 8-8

Bungle Inthejungle - The Singing Hills (Nathaniel)

Ray Dawson60%0/2G Harris60%
093568
2.0
1st Hood +1Tongue strap

Maiden has gone backwards since a fairly solid start in handicaps, running no sort of race on return from 10 weeks off at Wolverhampton last time.

Class Advantage

19/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a19/091/04 · C6 · finish vs mark below1/04 · mark par13/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/04 · mark par30/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/04 · mark par14/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above14/05 · mark par21/07 · C6 · finish vs mark below21/07 · mark par21/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength33%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 18%19/09Pos 9 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 9 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 11%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 88%13/04Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 64%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 64%14/05Pos 8 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 8 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 13%21/07
Projected finish5th of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength37%
ExpectedActualTrend
1
5
OR 703/1
Sydney Rock silks

Arbib Bloodstock Partnership

3yo Filly · 9-9

Australia - Star Rock (Fastnet Rock)

Edward GreatrexOliver Cole
222076
3.0Going 7.0

Runner-up all 3 starts as a 2-y-o (looks well treated on that form). Excuses this season, suffering a tack issue when well backed at Sandown latest. Looks interesting, especially if supported.

Class Advantage

24/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/072/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a22/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a11/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below11/06 · mark par13/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below13/07 · mark par29/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below29/07 · mark par29/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength49%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 88%24/07Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 88%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 91%22/09Pos 10 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 10 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 0%13/07Pos 6 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 6 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 0%29/07
Projected finish6th of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
7
OR 6218/1
Sup Of Red silks

Not Another Syndicate & Partner

3yo Filly · 9-1

Supremacy - Red Saree (Moohaajim)

D EganA Wintle
542527
4.0

Fair maiden who hit the frame in maiden/handicap company on turf in Ireland. Made bright start on all-weather for current connections before a lesser effort at Kempton in late-April. 3-month break presumably intended to freshen him up, though still has a bit to find at the weights back on turf.

Class Advantage

5/11 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/11 · mark par5/116/02 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/02 · mark par27/02 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/02 · mark par16/03 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/03 · mark par9/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above9/04 · mark par30/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/04 · mark par30/04projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 69%5/11Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 70%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 75%27/02Pos 5 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 60%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 75%9/04Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 45%30/04
Projected finish7th of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength16%
ExpectedActualTrend