7
La Rose Noire
4yo Filly · 10-6
Angers · Prix Richmond Brissac - Challenge Apgo Maiden Stakes · 1m 6f 200y
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Vichy | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Chateaubriant | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-05-24 | Chateaubriant | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 66/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 11/06/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 27% | -0.54 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 29% | -0.14 |