17:27 · Fairyhouse

Fairyhouse.ie Nursery Handicap

6fGoing TBC2YO onlyTURFHandicap9 runners
Ordered by projected finish
6
Value2
OR 67
7/1
Pink Venom silks

Noel Hartley

2yo Filly · 8-13

Soldier's Call - Periwinkle (Teofilo)

Ben Coen70%0/2J P Murtagh
733
6.0

Down the field in a Curragh maiden that's worked out well on debut. Sharper when third to a now-useful one over C&D subsequently and still looked in need of the experience when filling the same position (beaten 9 lengths) on qualifying run at Navan last time. Opening mark potentially a handy one.

Class Advantage

4/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a4/061/07 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a1/0723/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a23/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 33%4/06Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 71%1/07Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 86%23/08
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +33.7%Ahead 2/3
1
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 85
3/1
April Mist silks

Woodridge Stables Limited

2yo Filly · 10-3

Cotai Glory - Summerseat Mist (Dandy Man)

Nicola Burns−5lbG M Lyons60%
2177
4.0Going 8.0

Built on a promising debut with a cosy victory over Bold Commander at Bellewstown (5f). Highly tried in listed company both starts since, the latest of those easily forgiven (left poorly placed). Bred to stay 6f and looks favourably treated on first run in a handicap.

Class Advantage

24/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a24/063/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a3/0722/07 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a22/0716/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par16/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 86%24/06Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 100%3/07Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 25%22/07Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 33%16/08
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength66%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +19.4%Ahead 3/4
3
6
OR 80
7/1
Ocean Surge silks

Al Shira'aa Racing

2yo Filly · 9-12

Mehmas - Mystical Beauty (Camelot)

Billy Lee60%0/1W McCreery
865
2.0

6-figure purchase as a yearling. Has shown ability in maidens, finishing 7¼ lengths fifth behind some above-average types on qualifying run at Gowran (7f). That form has merit, and she could well improve now sent handicapping by an in-form yard.

Class Advantage

14/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a14/0614/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a14/081/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a1/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 46%14/06Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 67%14/08Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 73%1/09
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +35.7%Ahead 3/3
4
4
OR 70
10/1
Scarlet Dream silks

Adrian McGuinness

2yo Filly · 9-2

Ardad - True Scarlet (Make Believe)

Colin KeaneA McGuinness
794
3.0

Caught the eye/finished with running left when beaten 5 lengths on qualifying run at Navan last time. Step back up in trip looks sure to suit and she's a likely improver with Colin Keane taking over on nursery bow.

Class Advantage

15/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a15/0823/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a23/082/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a2/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 54%15/08Pos 9 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 47%23/08Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 57%2/09
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-3 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength82%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +47.3%Ahead 3/3
5
5
OR 67
9/2
Captain James Cook silks

Westerberg,Magnier,Tabor,Smith,Brant

2yo Colt · 8-13

Blackbeard - Liberisque (Equiano)

Wayne Lordan60%0/2A P O'Brien
0766
2.0

Hasn't lived up to his pedigree/price tag. Beaten 4 lengths from out of the weights on nursery bow at Navan last time. Does at least race off his proper mark in a lesser event here and is presumably the pick of Wayne Lordan (yard also saddle Bold Commander).

Class Advantage

3/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a3/068/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a8/0718/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a18/085/09 · C7 · finish vs mark below5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 12 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 12 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 8%3/06Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 14%8/07Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 55%18/08Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 44%5/09
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength82%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -37.6%Ahead 0/4
2
3
OR 80
4/1
Bold Commander silks

Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor

2yo Colt · 9-12

No Nay Never - Alphabet (Lawman)

Ronan Whelan0/1A P O'Brien70%
52555
3.0
1st Blinkers +3

Fifth in strong maiden at the Curragh (6f) on debut prior to chasing home April Mist at Bellewstown (now on much better terms with that rival). Hasn't progressed in a couple of starts since, however, he is reasonably treated if first-time blinkers have the desired effect on return to a nursery.

Class Advantage

23/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a23/053/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a19/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a30/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below30/07 · mark par17/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below17/09 · mark par17/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 43%23/05Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 86%3/07Pos 5 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 5 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 60%19/07Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 33%30/07Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 64%17/09
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength59%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -21.1%Ahead 0/4
9
8
OR 54
25/1
Stormy Dawn silks

P C Byrne

2yo Filly · 8-7

Soldier's Call - Stormy Belle (Dandy Man)

Keithen Kennedy0/2−5lbP A Fahy
006
2.0

Sent off long odds all 3 maiden starts. Showed a bit more when beaten 13½ lengths on qualifying run at Naas (6f, 500/1). Has likely been campaigned with this switch to handicaps in mind, but she faces no easy task from 7 lb out of the weights.

Class Advantage

9/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a9/0714/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a14/0823/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a23/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 12 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 8%9/07Pos 12 · SP 300/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 300/1 | Actual: 27%14/08Pos 6 · SP 500/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 500/1 | Actual: 64%23/08
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength89%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +33.1%Ahead 3/3
8
9
OR 59
8/1
Lily Bear silks

Fenpark Partnership

2yo Filly · 8-7

Kodi Bear - Aoife Alainn (Dr Fong)

Jamie PowellM C Grassick
7005
2.0
Hood

Runner-up in a barrier trial. Made more impact than in maidens when 5¼-length fifth of 14 on nursery bow at Naas (5f) 4 days ago. Return to 6f will suit and she could be a lively each-way player in a better race here (2 lb out of the handicap).

Class Advantage

11/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a11/0623/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a23/073/08 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a3/0817/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above17/09 · mark par17/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength4%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 7 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 14%11/06Pos 10 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 18%23/07Pos 11 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 0%3/08Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 69%17/09
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength92%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -12.1%Ahead 1/4
7
7
OR 65
8/1
Prince Of Peppard silks

Paul Hardy

2yo Colt · 8-11

Starman - Peppard (Dansili)

Rory Mulligan60%−5lbJ P Murtagh60%
9674
3.0
Cheek pieces

Proved consistent rather than progressive in maidens. Beaten 8¼ lengths on nursery debut at Navan (6f) last time. Handicapper has offered some welcome respite, however, Ben Coen prefers Pink Venom on this occasion.

Class Advantage

26/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a26/0622/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a22/0718/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a18/0827/08 · C7 · finish vs mark below27/08 · mark par27/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 27%26/06Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 71%22/07Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 45%18/08Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 57%27/08
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength11%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +13.9%Ahead 2/4