16:57 · Fairyhouse

Castlebridge Consignment Blenheim Stakes (Listed)

6fGoing TBCClass 12YO onlyTURF11 runners
Ordered by projected finish
10
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 105
2/1
Livenka silks

Juddmonte

2yo Filly · 9-0

Bated Breath - Pavlosk (Arch)

Colin Keane2/5G M Lyons60%
33114
7.0Going 10.0

From an excellent Juddmonte family. Looked a smart prospect when following up her C&D maiden win in a very valuable contest at Naas (6f). Connections quick to blame the ground for lacklustre hat-trick bid in Curragh Group 3, and she sets a useful standard on her previous form.

Class Advantage

27/04 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a27/0428/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a8/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a3/08 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a29/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move5
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 60%27/04Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 83%28/06Pos 1 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 100%8/07Pos 1 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 100%3/08Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 25%29/08
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength66%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -11.1%Ahead 2/4
7
4
OR 101
9/2
Big Negotiator silks

Bond Thoroughbred Limited

2yo Filly · 9-3

Havana Grey - Star Spirit (Deep Impact)

Billy Lee60%0/4P Twomey70%
210410
5.0Class ↓0
Visor

Much improved when landing a listed race (form hasn't worked out) at Naas in first-time visor on penultimate start. Wasn't in anything like the same form faced with soft ground in the Lowther subsequently. Solid chance at the weights this time, for all she probably lacks the scope of a few in here.

Class Advantage

31/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a31/0512/06 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a17/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a4/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par22/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above22/07 · mark par20/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength37%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 86%31/05Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 100%Pos 15 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 15 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 46%17/06Pos 4 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 4 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 67%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%22/07Pos 11 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 38%20/08
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +29.5%Ahead 3/4
6
3
OR 98
12/1
Where Love Lives silks

The Thoroughbred Racing Corporation Ltd

2yo Colt · 9-5

Cotai Glory - Bettys Hope (Anjaal)

Gavin RyanDonnacha O'Brien60%
11045
5.0Class ↓0

Started career 2-2 for Kevin Ryan. Best effort for current yard when fourth in the Group 2 Richmond at Goodwood in July. Wasn't in the same form in Group 3 at Curragh latest and still has a bit to find dropped into a very useful listed race.

Class Advantage

10/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a10/0428/05 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a20/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a30/07 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par29/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%10/04Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%28/05Pos 12 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 12 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 45%20/06Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 67%30/07Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 0%29/08
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength48%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +14.1%Ahead 3/4
8
5
12/1
Fighting Tears silks

A Oliver

2yo Filly · 9-0

Lucky Vega - American Frolic (Blame)

Ronan Whelan1/1A Oliver60%
1
10.0

Cheap purchase who attracted support when successful in big-field Curragh maiden on debut. That performance can be marked up, but she'll need to improve significantly in the face of much better opposition.

Class Advantage

16/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a16/08
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move7
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%16/08
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-4 · 50%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength51%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +28.9%Ahead 1/1
5
6
OR 99
8/1
The Scallionator silks

Clearys Syndicate

2yo Colt · 9-5

Calyx - Carpe Diem Lady (Acclamation)

Wesley Joyce60%2/7M Mulvany60%
210461
5.0Class ↓1

No impact in pattern races on the back of his Listowel maiden success. Travelled well/didn't need to improve when making all in 6f conditions race at Cork (6f) last time. Work to do returning to deeper waters here.

Class Advantage

16/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a16/0531/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a16/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a18/07 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par9/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above9/08 · mark par9/09 · C10 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move4
Strength30%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 89%16/05Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 16 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 16 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 25%16/06Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 6 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 29%9/08Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Actual: 100%9/09
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength63%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +26.6%Ahead 4/4
4
2
OR 98
12/1
Nail House silks

Tropical Racing

2yo Colt · 9-5

No Nay Never - J'ouvert (Dawn Approach)

J M Sheridan60%1/2J P O'Brien60%
136
5.0Class ↓0

Improved on his debut C&D success when 4½-length third (despite not being seen to best effect) in Group 3 Tyrone at Leopardstown. Again raced freely when trailing the field in Group 2 Futurity latest and should do better dropped in class/trip.

Class Advantage

8/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a8/0723/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a23/0722/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move2
Strength28%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%8/07Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 40%23/07Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 0%22/08
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +4.6%Ahead 2/3
11
7
OR 83
33/1
Lola De Valence silks

Guy O'Callaghan

2yo Filly · 9-0

Havana Grey - Sacred Dance (Sea The Stars)

Ben Coen70%B R Millman60%
319
4.0

Wide-margin winner of an ordinary novice at Nottingham second time up. Encountered softer ground when seemingly found out by step up to a Group 3 at Salisbury since. May again find this too competitive.

Class Advantage

21/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a21/073/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a3/083/09 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move2
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%21/07Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%3/08Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 20%3/09
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength37%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +14.6%Ahead 2/3
3
9
9/4
Marco Polo silks

Tabor,Smith,Magnier,Westerberg,Brant

2yo Colt · 9-5

Night Of Thunder - Swiss Air (Oasis Dream)

Wayne Lordan60%1/1A P O'Brien60%
281
5.0Class ↓0

Chased home subsequent Group 3 winner on racecourse bow. Still looked in need of experience when well-held favourite in the Gimcrack prior to landing the odds impressively at Cork (6f) last time. High hopes of further improvement given his pedigree/Group 1 entries. Serious player up in grade.

Class Advantage

9/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a9/0821/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a21/089/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a9/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move5
Strength10%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 94%9/08Pos 8 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 8 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 22%21/08Pos 1 · SP 1/8 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 1/8 | Actual: 100%9/09
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength21%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -0.1%Ahead 1/3
2
8
OR 87
33/1
Lars Soldier silks

Laurence Mulvany

2yo Gelding · 9-5

Soldier's Call - Amber Dawn (Buratino)

Donagh O'Connor60%M Mulvany60%
342551
5.0

Doubled his tally with a narrow victory (met some trouble) in a fairly useful Navan nursery last time. Taking his racing well, however, he faces a tough ask at the weights up in class.

Class Advantage

28/05 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a28/0519/07 · C9 · finish vs mark below19/07 · mark par24/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below24/07 · mark par18/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below18/08 · mark par31/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below31/08 · mark par5/09 · C8 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move8
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 71%28/05Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 57%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 86%24/07Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 43%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 50%31/08Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%5/09
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +19.0%Ahead 3/4
1
10
66/1
Catuai silks

Simon Chappell

2yo Gelding · 9-5

Caturra - Talent Spotter (Exceed And Excel)

Sam Coen60%D Dias
No form3.0

Foaled February 23. 60,000 gns yearling, Caturra gelding. Half-brother to several winners, including useful winner up to 9f Lethal Talent and 2-y-o 7f winner Majestic Mac. Dam maiden. Second of 6 (to Golden Alibi) in barrier trial at Leopardstown. Pitched into the deep end on racecourse bow.

Class Advantage

No data

Previous Market Position

Projected finish10th of 1110% of field
NO HISTORYfirst run / unraced
Trend
Strength0%
9
11
66/1
Golden Alibi silks

Chad Schumer

2yo Filly · 9-0

Golden Pal - Story Time (Broken Vow)

Jamie PowellM O'Callaghan
No form3.0

Foaled March 17. Golden Pal filly. Half-sister to 6f US winner Motown Story. Dam US winner up to 1m. Landed a 6-runner barrier trial at Leopardstown in August (third Value Pending won at Dundalk last Friday). She'll need to be a useful one to make a telling impact on racecourse bow, though.

Class Advantage

No data

Previous Market Position

Projected finish11th of 110% of field
NO HISTORYfirst run / unraced
Trend
Strength0%