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16:27 · Fairyhouse

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap

7fGoing TBC3YO plusTURFHandicap13 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
Market Fav2
OR 86
3/1
Mai Dahlia silks

Ahmed Aldubaili

Mai Dahlia

3yo Filly · 9-12

Too Darn Hot - Nourah (Shamardal)

J M Sheridan60%0/1J P O'Brien
321
8.0Going 9.0
Tongue strap

Well-bred daughter of Too Darn Hot who improved when landing the odds readily in maiden at Naas (1m) on her third start. Has more on at the weights here, but she's hard to discount on her handicap bow now up and running for excellent yard.

Class Advantage

17/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a17/0528/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a28/054/07 · C8 · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par4/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 71%17/05Pos 2 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 2 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 83%28/05Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Actual: 100%4/07
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -3.1%Ahead 1/3
10
6
OR 75
6/1
Never The Same silks

Philip Antonacci & Mrs Paul Shanahan & Mrs John Magnier

Never The Same

3yo Filly · 9-1

No Nay Never - Russian River (Dandy Man)

Shay Wallace−7lbJ P O'Brien
841
7.0Going 8.0
Tongue strap

Improving No Nay Never filly who landed 17-runner maiden at Naas (1m, good) in August. Has more to offer now going into handicaps. Not without interest.

Class Advantage

28/11 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a28/1118/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a18/073/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a3/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 42%28/11Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 70%18/07Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%3/08
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +30.2%Ahead 3/3
13
5
OR 74
7/1
Thenandnow silks

Flaxman Stables Ireland Ltd

Thenandnow

3yo Filly · 9-0

Dubawi - Albigna (Zoffany)

Nathan Crosse0/1Mrs J Harrington60%
150353
5.0

Got off the mark in 6f maiden at the Curragh in April. Has posted solid efforts in handicaps last 3 starts, including when third of 14 at Roscommon (7.5f, good) 34 days ago. Enters calculations.

Class Advantage

19/04 · C8 · finish vs mark above19/04 · mark par19/043/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above3/05 · mark par20/06 · C1 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par1/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below1/07 · mark par22/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below22/07 · mark par18/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below18/08 · mark par18/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%19/04Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 43%Pos 12 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 21%20/06Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 80%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 43%22/07Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 85%18/08
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +17.1%Ahead 3/4
2
4
OR 88
11/2
Prevalence silks

Juddmonte

Prevalence

3yo Filly · 10-0

Dark Angel - Occurrence (Frankel)

Colin Keane2/3G M Lyons60%
013010
5.0Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

Confirmed earlier promise when winning a 20-runner handicap at the Curragh (1m, good to firm) in June. Cheekpieces on for first time, not best drawn when last of 12 in Fairy Bridge Stakes at Cork (7f, good to soft) 22 days ago. No surprise to see her bounce back.

Class Advantage

26/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a26/097/11 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a4/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below4/05 · mark par24/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below24/05 · mark par26/06 · C8 · finish vs mark above26/06 · mark par30/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par30/08projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 10 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 25%26/09Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 82%4/05Pos 10 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 10 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 18%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%26/06Pos 12 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 12 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 0%30/08
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -7.2%Ahead 2/4
6
Top Pick1
OR 81
12/1
Glory To Be silks

Back Nine Bandits Partnership

Glory To Be

4yo Filly · 9-10

Cotai Glory - Hamster Jam (Dutch Art)

Wayne Lordan60%2/10M C Grassick60%
952104
6.0Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

Resumed winning ways over C&D in July. Back on track with fourth of 8 in handicap at Leopardstown (1m, good) 32 days ago. Not ruled out.

Class Advantage

17/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below17/05 · mark par17/0527/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below27/06 · mark par1/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below1/07 · mark par8/07 · C8 · finish vs mark above8/07 · mark par18/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below18/07 · mark par20/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 9 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 33%17/05Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 90%1/07Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 13 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 37%18/07Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 57%20/08
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +19.7%Ahead 4/4
11
8
OR 75
10/1
Star Strewn silks

Adam R Potts & C W J Farrell & B Sheerin

Star Strewn

3yo Filly · 9-1

Starman - Marian Halcombe (Bernardini)

Rory Cleary1/4C W J Farrell
318971
6.0
Tongue strap

Doubled her tally on second start for new yard in 18-runner handicap at Cork (1m, soft) 12 days ago. Needs to back it up now off 5 lb higher mark.

Class Advantage

26/11 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a26/1111/02 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a28/02 · C1 · finish vs mark above28/02 · mark par24/04 · C8 · finish vs mark below24/04 · mark par1/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below1/09 · mark par9/09 · C7 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 85%26/11Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 0%28/02Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 40%1/09Pos 1 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 100%9/09
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +31.1%Ahead 2/4
5
3
OR 83
16/1
Treasure Rose silks

Anthony Paul Smurfit

Treasure Rose

4yo Filly · 9-12

Inns Of Court - Wild Mix (Mastercraftsman)

Ben Coen70%1/8J P Murtagh60%
211588
5.0Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

Recorded back-to-back handicap wins (including here) this summer and wasn't discredited up in grade when staying on for fifth in listed race at Naas. However, has found things tougher in good company since.

Class Advantage

12/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below12/05 · mark par12/0519/06 · C7 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par1/07 · C8 · finish vs mark above1/07 · mark par22/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above22/07 · mark par14/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above14/08 · mark par23/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above23/08 · mark par23/08projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 2 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 92%12/05Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%1/07Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 71%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 30%14/08Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%23/08
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength37%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +26.0%Ahead 3/4
12
9
OR 71
8/1
Hugo's Girl silks

Mrs Eileen Dowling & Joseph Bell

Hugo's Girl

4yo Filly · 9-0

Coulsty - Twiggy's Girl (Manduro)

Rory Mulligan60%1/3−5lbThomas Dowling
244251
6.0
Tongue strap

Finally gained a first win in 9-runner maiden at Laytown (7f) 11 days ago. This consistent sort can make her presence felt again.

Class Advantage

7/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above7/06 · mark par7/061/07 · C7 · finish vs mark above1/07 · mark par8/07 · C7 · finish vs mark above8/07 · mark par9/08 · C7 · finish vs mark above9/08 · mark par22/08 · C7 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par10/09 · C8 · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 95%7/06Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 70%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 79%8/07Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 92%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 85%22/08Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%10/09
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +8.1%Ahead 3/4
9
10
OR 72
12/1
Bella Colombia silks

COR Racing Syndicate

Bella Colombia

5yo Mare · 9-1

The Last Lion - Daanaat (Kheleyf)

Billy Lee60%1/9W McCreery
231139
5.0

Followed up her comfortable Killarney success in 9f Leopardstown handicap this summer. Shaped encouragingly with ninth of 18 back at Leopardstown (1m, good to firm) 9 days ago, finishing well having suffered poor run. Sure to go well eased 1 lb.

Class Advantage

1/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above1/07 · mark par1/0712/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above12/07 · mark par15/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above15/07 · mark par6/08 · C7 · finish vs mark above6/08 · mark par20/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below20/08 · mark par12/09 · C7 · finish vs mark below12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 91%1/07Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 85%Pos 1 · SP 85/40 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 85/40 | Actual: 100%15/07Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 71%20/08Pos 9 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 9 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 53%12/09
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength53%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +20.1%Ahead 3/4
7
7
OR 80
25/1
Stars Will Shine silks

Sabina Kelly

Stars Will Shine

3yo Filly · 9-6

Starman - Vital Body (Gold Away)

Ronan WhelanN Meade
31590
3.0Going 7.0

Won 12-runner maiden at Down Royal (7f, good to soft) in September. Below form in a pair of handicaps on good to firm at the Curragh this season. Back from a break and unwise to give up on her.

Class Advantage

10/09 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a10/0929/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a21/10 · C1 · finish vs mark above21/10 · mark par24/05 · C9 · finish vs mark below24/05 · mark par28/06 · C9 · finish vs mark below28/06 · mark par28/06projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 80%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 85%10/09Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 100%29/09Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 43%21/10Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 27%24/05Pos 10 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 40%28/06
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -8.2%Ahead 2/4
1
11
OR 85
12/1
Noli Timere silks

Eleanora Kennedy

Noli Timere

4yo Filly · 10-0

Starspangledbanner - Mahabba (Galileo)

Jamie Powell0/4M O'Callaghan60%
050057
2.0
Cheek pieces

Winner of Naas maiden and handicap at Navan in August last year. Got back on track with fifth of 9 in handicap at Limerick (1m) and faced a stiff task in Galway listed event last time. Not dismissed.

Class Advantage

13/09 · C9 · finish vs mark below13/09 · mark par13/0923/09 · C1 · finish vs mark above23/09 · mark par12/10 · C1 · finish vs mark above12/10 · mark par15/03 · C9 · finish vs mark below15/03 · mark par10/06 · C9 · finish vs mark below10/06 · mark par30/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par30/07projClass-projected finish: 12th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 12 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 12 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 42%13/09Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 11 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 38%12/10Pos 19 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 19 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 50%10/06Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 25%30/07
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength39%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +14.6%Ahead 3/4
8
13
OR 73
12/1
Back Down Under silks

Back Down Under Syndicate

Back Down Under

5yo Mare · 9-2

Australia - Back On Top (Lope De Vega)

Donagh O'Connor60%P Roche
964504
3.0

Best run this season when fourth of 22 at the Curragh in May. Below that level in 3 runs since (well backed at Navan latest) but handily weighted if back on her A-game.

Class Advantage

16/10 · C8 · finish vs mark below16/10 · mark par16/1015/03 · C8 · finish vs mark below15/03 · mark par23/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below23/05 · mark par28/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below28/06 · mark par18/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below18/07 · mark par27/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below27/08 · mark par27/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 9 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 11%16/10Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 38%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 86%23/05Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 73%Pos 12 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 42%18/07Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 63%27/08
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength47%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +31.0%Ahead 3/4
4
12
OR 83
20/1
Temperance silks

Thomas Hore

Temperance

4yo Filly · 9-12

Churchill - Boastful (Clodovil)

Gavin RyanMiss K McGivern80%
586077
2.0
1st Blinkers +3

Sole success came in a 6f Naas handicap last spring. Has found things tough in listed races/Group 3 this season and now reverts to handicap company in a change of headgear (blinkers first time).

Class Advantage

25/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below25/06 · mark par25/0610/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par28/06 · C1 · finish vs mark above28/06 · mark par22/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above22/07 · mark par14/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above14/08 · mark par23/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above23/08 · mark par23/08projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%25/06Pos 8 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 6 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 38%28/06Pos 11 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 7 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 40%14/08Pos 7 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 14%23/08
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +30.1%Ahead 4/4