11
Excessiveness
5yo Filly · 8-10
Angers · Prix Mondial Du Lion (Prix Du Chateau Du Roi De Pologne) Handicap · 1m 2f 96y
#7
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Saint-Malo | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Angers | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Angers | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Deauville | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Deauville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 62% | +0.35 |
| 01/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 30/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 79% | +0.31 |
| 22/12/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 09/01/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.23 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 23/07/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 31% | -0.30 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |