Eighteenth Smiles
2yo Colt · 9-12 · OR 85
Fairyhouse · Winter Festival Early Bird Ticket Claiming Race · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
10/11
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
81%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Cork | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Roscommon | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | BHA72 | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | ? | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Listowel | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Redcar | 5 | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 11/07/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 31% | +0.05 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 82% | +0.27 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |