3
Tio Joao
2yo Colt · 9-12
Fairyhouse · Winter Festival Early Bird Ticket Claiming Race · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength35%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +3.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Dundalk | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | 1 | 6th | -2th | +7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -25.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/09/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 45% | -0.26 |