Joyous Heart
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 75
Fairyhouse · Kilminfoyle House Stud Fillies Maiden · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 7.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Navan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Chantilly | ? | 12th | 8th | +4 |
| 2025-10-02 | Chantilly | ? | 10th | 6th | +4 |
| 2025-08-14 | Deauville | ? | 5th | 1st | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +19.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 20. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 02/10/2025 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 08/11/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.07 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 82% | +0.77 |