9
Nautic Star
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 73
Fairyhouse · Kilminfoyle House Stud Fillies Maiden · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class: BHA75
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Navan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA75 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Dundalk | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Cork | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 2095% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 20.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 10/09/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 63% | -0.27 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.37 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 94% | +0.04 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.07 |