20
Saga Lucia
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 73
Fairyhouse · Kilminfoyle House Stud Fillies Maiden · 7f
#10
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: BHA75
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Killarney | BHA75 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Dundalk | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Dundalk | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 2042% of fieldRange 20-20 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -30.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 62% | +0.01 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 21/08/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |