13
Covert Legend
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 61
Fairyhouse · La Bucca Restaurant Handicap · 7f
#14
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Naas | BHA63 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA63 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA62 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Nottingham | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 2125% of fieldRange 18-21 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 21. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 28/01/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 04/03/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 12/04/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 77% | +0.72 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 25% | -0.69 |
| 03/08/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 30% | -0.12 |
| 23/08/2026 | 14th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.34 |