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21

Dervo Annie

3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 57

Fairyhouse · La Bucca Restaurant Handicap · 7f

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner back in June and built on that at the second attempt when runner-up over C&D the following month. Not in the same form since but has been given some help by the handicapper. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: BHA49
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 03/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 5f Std 1283/12C8BHA52 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 52 · 7f205y Sft 122 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 52 parBHA49 @ Down Royal 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 49 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 49 par29/0549OR 49BHA54 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 54 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 54 parBHA60 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 60 · 7f Sft 133 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 60 par19/0660OR 60BHA60 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 60 · 7f Goo 125 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 60 parBHA63 @ Killarney 13/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 63 · 1m20y Gd 123 · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 63 par13/0763OR 63BHA63 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 63 · 7f Yie 123 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 63 parBHA61 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 19 · OR 61 · 6f Yie 128 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 61 par29/0861OR 61projClass-projected finish: 11th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29CurraghBHA618th8th0
2026-07-27GalwayBHA637th7th0
2026-07-13KillarneyBHA636th6th0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA602nd2nd0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA605th5th0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA541st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1212/0613/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 2145% of fieldRange 10-21 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength9%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 21. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/12/20258th100/10%13%+0.13
11/04/20267th25/10%50%+0.50
29/05/20262nd14/126%92%+0.66
12/06/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
19/06/20265th10/382%60%-0.22
01/07/20262nd16/116%94%+0.78
13/07/20266th11/142%29%-0.14
27/07/20267th16/116%57%+0.41
29/08/20268th13/266%61%-0.05