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19

Elly Bay

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 60

Fairyhouse · La Bucca Restaurant Handicap · 7f

#12

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran some good races for Johnny Murtagh last season and her standout effort this campaign came with a second-placed finish in a C&D handicap back in May. Has been given some further help by the assessor. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: BHA62
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 24/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 7f Goo 12124/08C8BHA73 @ Curragh 28/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 73 · 7f Yie 131 · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 73 parC8 @ Navan 08/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 71 · 5f180y Yie 121 · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 71 par8/10C8OR 71BHA70 @ Dundalk 12/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 70 · 6f Std 138 · below its mark12/11/2025 · OR 70 parBHA66 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 66 · 7f205y Sft 136 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 66 par11/0466OR 66BHA65 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 65 · 7f111y Gd 133 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 65 parBHA62 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 62 · 7f Gd 130 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 62 par28/0562OR 62BHA63 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR 63 · 7f Goo 128 · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 63 parBHA63 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 63 · 5f180y Goo 127 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 63 par11/0763OR 63projClass-projected finish: 14th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11NavanBHA6311th11th0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA639th9th0
2026-05-28FairyhouseBHA622nd2nd0
2026-05-11RoscommonBHA655th5th0
2026-04-11BellewstownBHA666th6th0
2025-11-12DundalkBHA709th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0812/1128/0511/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 2135% of fieldRange 11-21 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength12%

Delivery trend +4.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 21. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/08/20253rd10/382%86%+0.03
28/09/20259th7/282%20%-0.62
08/10/20254th5/174%77%+0.03
12/11/20259th9/488%38%-0.50
11/04/20266th17/255%58%+0.03
11/05/20265th7/163%67%+0.04
28/05/20262nd13/266%92%+0.26
01/07/20269th12/137%53%+0.16
11/07/202611th10/147%29%-0.19