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14

Givehertilxmas

4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 61

Fairyhouse · La Bucca Restaurant Handicap · 7f

#13

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made an encouraging return with a couple of placed finishes at Roscommon, latest when head second to Phoenix Pairc 3 weeks ago. Cheekpieces quickly discarded but she's one to take very seriously in bid to finally open her account.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: BHA55
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Down Royal 30/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 7f Gd 12930/05C8BHA62 @ Gowran Park 15/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 62 · 7f Sft 132 · below its mark15/06/2025 · OR 62 parBHA57 @ Bellewstown 02/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 57 · 7f195y Sft 139 · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 57 par2/1057OR 57BHA61 @ Gowran Park 20/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 61 · 7f Hvy 131 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 61 parBHA60 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m Std 141 · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 60 par5/1260OR 60BHA59 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 59 · 7f Std 141 · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 59 parBHA55 @ Dundalk 13/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 55 · 1m2f150y Std 135 · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 55 par13/0155OR 55BHA57 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 57 · 7f94y Goo 139 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 57 parBHA60 @ Roscommon 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 60 · 7f94y Yie 142 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 60 par31/0860OR 60projClass-projected finish: 4th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31RoscommonBHA602nd2nd0
2026-06-30RoscommonBHA573rd3rd0
2026-01-13DundalkBHA5511th11th0
2025-12-17DundalkBHA596th6th0
2025-12-05DundalkBHA6010th10th0
2025-10-20Gowran ParkBHA616th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0520/1013/0131/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 2165% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength91%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 21.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/05/20256th40/10%38%+0.38
15/06/20259th33/10%20%+0.20
02/10/20252nd5/174%89%+0.15
20/10/20256th9/276%67%-0.10
05/12/202510th12/137%31%-0.06
17/12/20256th14/126%62%+0.35
13/01/202611th25/10%23%+0.23
30/06/20263rd11/142%86%+0.44
31/08/20262nd15/890%92%+0.02