10
La La Lucrative
5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 63
Fairyhouse · La Bucca Restaurant Handicap · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA65 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Roscommon | BHA57 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairyhouse | BHA58 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Listowel | BHA45 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Dundalk | BHA48 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Dundalk | BHA51 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 2195% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 21. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 77% | +0.40 |
| 04/10/2025 | 18th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/10/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 30% | -0.33 |
| 21/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 05/12/2025 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 54% | +0.49 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.12 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |