IvyArcIvyArc
5

Loingseoir

10yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 66

Fairyhouse · La Bucca Restaurant Handicap · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

41%

Place Prob

27%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won this 2 years ago and has generally had a solid season. Towards the head of the betting but got going only too late when down the field at Galway 13 days ago. Drops back down to last winning mark though wide draw doesn't help.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA73 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR 73 · 7f Hvy 133 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 73 par2/1173OR 73BHA73 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 73 · 7f Sft 133 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 73 parBHA73 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 73 · 1m50y Yie 143 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 73 par25/0473OR 73BHA70 @ Leopardstown 04/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 70 · 7f20y Sft 122 · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 70 parBHA70 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 70 · 7f35y Sft 140 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 70 par11/0670OR 70BHA70 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 70 · 7f Goo 140 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 70 parBHA69 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 69 · 1m1f135y Goo 140 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 69 par20/0769OR 69BHA68 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 68 · 1m123y Yie 138 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 68 parBHA67 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 67 · 7f Sft 137 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 67 par8/0967OR 67projClass-projected finish: 10th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08GalwayBHA678th8th0
2026-07-28GalwayBHA683rd3rd0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA694th4th0
2026-07-08FairyhouseBHA706th6th0
2026-06-11LeopardstownBHA704th4th0
2026-06-04LeopardstownBHA704th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/114/0620/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 2180% of fieldRange 7-21 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength36%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 21. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/11/202514th25/10%32%+0.32
19/04/20269th66/10%50%+0.50
25/04/20267th14/126%54%+0.28
04/06/20264th14/126%67%+0.40
11/06/20264th12/137%73%+0.36
08/07/20266th16/116%64%+0.48
20/07/20264th10/147%73%+0.25
28/07/20263rd11/142%88%+0.45
08/09/20268th10/382%30%-0.52