15
Mr Perth
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 63
Fairyhouse · La Bucca Restaurant Handicap · 7f
#18
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class: BHA66
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Gowran Park | BHA66 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA66 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Leopardstown | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Gowran Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Curragh | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 2115% of fieldRange 18-21 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -20.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 21. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/05/2026 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 31/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 65% | -0.12 |
| 01/09/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |