2
Naoi
4yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 68
Fairyhouse · La Bucca Restaurant Handicap · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: BHA66
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | BHA70 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Leopardstown | BHA66 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-14 | Killarney | BHA72 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-05-30 | Down Royal | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-23 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-04-06 | Cork | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 2185% of fieldRange 1-20 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%
Delivery trend +8.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 21. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 23/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 78% | -0.16 |
| 30/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 14/07/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 36% | -0.37 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 29/08/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |