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Simmering Seas

3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 58

Fairyhouse · La Bucca Restaurant Handicap · 7f

#15

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In frame last 4 starts, latest when fourth of 18 in handicap at Navan (5f, good) 16 days ago. Significantly up in trip and the tongue strap goes back on. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 7.6)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 05/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR - · 5f Goo 1285/07C8C8 @ Curragh 09/08/2025 · Pos 24th of 28 · OR - · 6f Gd 128BHA58 @ Curragh 16/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 58 · 6f Gd 119 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 58 par16/0858OR 58BHA58 @ Naas 22/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 58 · 5f Sft 126 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 58 parBHA58 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 58 · 5f3y Sft 129 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 58 par11/0458OR 58BHA54 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 54 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 54 parBHA54 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 19 · OR 54 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 54 par23/0854OR 54BHA54 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 19 · OR 54 · 6f Yie 121 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 54 parBHA58 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 58 · 5f Gd 140 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 58 par5/0958OR 58projClass-projected finish: 1st of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05NavanBHA584th4th0
2026-08-29CurraghBHA542nd2nd0
2026-08-23NaasBHA544th4th0
2026-08-14CorkBHA542nd2nd0
2026-04-11BellewstownBHA5810th10th0
2026-03-22NaasBHA586th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0722/0323/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 2150% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength81%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 21. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/20258th7/163%50%-0.13
09/08/202524th25/10%15%+0.15
16/08/20257th15/261%45%-0.15
22/03/20266th16/116%64%+0.48
11/04/202610th15/261%36%-0.25
14/08/20262nd11/486%91%+0.05
23/08/20264th7/282%83%+0.02
29/08/20262nd9/153%94%+0.42
05/09/20264th6/168%82%+0.14