8
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5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 73
Fairyhouse · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f
#13
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: BHA74
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Navan | BHA78 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | BHA79 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | BHA79 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | BHA81 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | BHA82 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Curragh | BHA84 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 19/07/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 87% | +0.60 |
| 14/09/2025 | 16th | 14/1 | 26% | 32% | +0.05 |
| 16/10/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 11% | -0.42 |
| 15/03/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.13 |
| 18/07/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |