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9

Bella Colombia

5yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 72

Fairyhouse · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Followed up her comfortable Killarney success in 9f Leopardstown handicap this summer. Shaped encouragingly with ninth of 18 back at Leopardstown (1m, good to firm) 9 days ago, finishing well having suffered poor run. Sure to go well eased 1 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA59 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 59 · 1m Std 141 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 59 par6/0359OR 59BHA62 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 62 · 1m50y Yie 132 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 62 parBHA62 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 62 · 7f94y Goo 132 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 62 par18/0562OR 62BHA60 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 60 · 1m160y Goo 142 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 60 parBHA60 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 60 · 1m Std 142 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 60 par12/0760OR 60BHA60 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 60 · 1m40y Gd 142 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 60 parBHA67 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 22 · OR 67 · 1m1f Goo 137 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 67 par6/0867OR 67BHA75 @ Leopardstown 20/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 75 · 1m Goo 125 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 75 parBHA73 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR 73 · 1m60y Gd 119 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 73 par12/0973OR 73projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12LeopardstownBHA739th9th0
2026-08-20LeopardstownBHA753rd3rd0
2026-08-06LeopardstownBHA671st1st0
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA601st1st0
2026-07-12DundalkBHA603rd3rd0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA602nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/031/076/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength53%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/03/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
25/04/20263rd8/158%85%+0.27
18/05/20265th6/168%71%+0.03
01/07/20262nd3/184%91%+0.07
12/07/20263rd7/282%85%+0.03
15/07/20261st85/4089%100%+0.11
06/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
20/08/20263rd11/271%71%+0.00
12/09/20269th16/116%53%+0.37