IvyArcIvyArc
12

Hugo's Girl

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 71

Fairyhouse · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f

#9

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finally gained a first win in 9-runner maiden at Laytown (7f) 11 days ago. This consistent sort can make her presence felt again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA64 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 64 · 1m Std 122 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 64 par20/0364OR 64C5 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 64 · 7f Yie 124 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 64 parBHA63 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 63 · 6f Gd 133 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 63 par4/0563OR 63BHA62 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 21 · OR 62 · 5f Goo 132 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 62 parBHA65 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 65 · 6f Goo 125 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 65 par1/0765OR 65BHA65 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 65 · 7f Goo 135 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 65 parBHA68 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 68 · 6f GF 128 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 68 par9/0868OR 68BHA69 @ Curragh 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 27 · OR 69 · 6f Goo 139 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 69 parC8 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 66 · 7f Std 138 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 66 par10/09C8OR 66projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Laytown?1st1st0
2026-08-22CurraghBHA695th5th0
2026-08-09CurraghBHA682nd2nd0
2026-07-08FairyhouseBHA654th4th0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA654th4th0
2026-06-07NavanBHA622nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/037/069/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength49%

Delivery trend -7.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/03/20263rd28/10%80%+0.80
15/04/202610th14/126%40%+0.14
04/05/20263rd12/137%89%+0.53
07/06/20262nd12/137%95%+0.58
01/07/20264th5/174%70%-0.04
08/07/20264th10/382%79%-0.04
09/08/20262nd9/276%92%+0.16
22/08/20265th4/179%85%+0.06
10/09/20261st11/486%100%+0.14