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3

Mai Dahlia

3yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 86

Fairyhouse · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well-bred daughter of Too Darn Hot who improved when landing the odds readily in maiden at Naas (1m) on her third start. Has more on at the weights here, but she's hard to discount on her handicap bow now up and running for excellent yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 17/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 12917/05C8C8 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 1m1f210y Gd 12928/05C8C8 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 82 · 1m Goo 129 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 82 par4/07C8OR 82projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Naas?1st1st0
2026-05-28Fairyhouse?2nd2nd0
2026-05-17Naas?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0528/054/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02
28/05/20262nd1/195%83%-0.11
04/07/20261st4/596%100%+0.04