1
Noli Timere
4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 85
Fairyhouse · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 8.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | BHA86 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | BHA88 | 19th | 19th | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Naas | 1 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Listowel | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Leopardstown | BHA90 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength39%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 04/08/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 11/5 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 13/09/2025 | 12th | 9/1 | 53% | 42% | -0.11 |
| 23/09/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 12/10/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 15/03/2026 | 19th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |