2
Prevalence
3yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 88
Fairyhouse · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Cork | 1 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA82 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | BHA83 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Curragh | BHA82 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Dundalk | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Dundalk | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 07/11/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 82% | +0.40 |
| 24/05/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 18% | -0.56 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/08/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |