11
Star Strewn
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 75
Fairyhouse · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Cork | BHA70 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gowran Park | BHA76 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Cork | BHA82 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Lingfield | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Dundalk | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Dundalk | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +13.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 73% | -0.15 |
| 26/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 85% | -0.02 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 28/02/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/04/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |