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4

Temperance

4yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 83

Fairyhouse · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f

#12

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole success came in a 6f Naas handicap last spring. Has found things tough in listed races/Group 3 this season and now reverts to handicap company in a change of headgear (blinkers first time).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 11/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 76 · 6f Std 129 · below its mark11/04/2025 · OR 76 par11/04C8OR 76BHA75 @ Naas 10/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 75 · 5f205y Goo 129 · beat its mark10/05/2025 · OR 75 par1 @ Naas 18/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 81 · 5f205y Goo 128 · beat its mark18/05/2025 · OR 81 par18/051OR 81BHA84 @ Naas 25/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 84 · 5f205y Gd 125 · below its mark25/06/2025 · OR 84 par1 @ Leopardstown 10/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 82 · 7f GF 127 · beat its mark10/07/2025 · OR 82 par10/071OR 821 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 80 · 6f Gd 128 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 80 par1 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 84 · 5f205y Goo 133 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 84 par22/071OR 841 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 84 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 84 par1 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 84 · 5f205y Goo 133 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 84 par23/081OR 84projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Naas17th7th0
2026-08-14Cork17th7th0
2026-07-22Naas111th11th0
2026-06-28Curragh16th6th0
2025-07-10Leopardstown18th8th0
2025-06-25NaasBHA845th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0425/0622/0723/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%

Delivery trend +4.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/04/20252nd15/890%83%-0.07
10/05/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
18/05/20255th80/10%20%+0.20
25/06/20255th9/276%0%-0.76
10/07/20258th66/10%0%0.00
28/06/20266th80/10%38%+0.38
22/07/202611th66/10%29%+0.29
14/08/20267th100/10%40%+0.40
23/08/20267th100/10%14%+0.14