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5

Treasure Rose

4yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 83

Fairyhouse · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Recorded back-to-back handicap wins (including here) this summer and wasn't discredited up in grade when staying on for fifth in listed race at Naas. However, has found things tougher in good company since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairyhouse 22/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 75 · 7f Yie 129 · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 75 par22/09C8OR 75C8 @ Naas 11/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 76 · 7f Yie 129 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 76 parC8 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 76 · 1m50y Yie 130 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 76 par25/04C8OR 76C8 @ Killarney 12/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 76 · 1m31y Gd 130 · below its mark12/05/2026 · OR 76 parBHA74 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 74 · 7f Sft 134 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 74 par19/0674OR 74BHA77 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 77 par1 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 83 · 5f205y Goo 133 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 83 par22/071OR 831 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 83 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 83 par1 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 84 · 5f205y Goo 133 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 84 par23/081OR 84projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Naas18th8th0
2026-08-14Cork18th8th0
2026-07-22Naas15th5th0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA771st1st0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA741st1st0
2026-05-12Killarney?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0912/0522/0723/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength37%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/20252nd9/276%92%+0.16
11/10/20253rd7/163%87%+0.24
25/04/20262nd9/276%93%+0.17
12/05/20262nd6/594%92%-0.02
19/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
01/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
22/07/20265th25/10%71%+0.71
14/08/20268th14/126%30%+0.04
23/08/20268th50/10%0%0.00