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7

Big Negotiator

2yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 101

Fairyhouse · Castlebridge Consignment Blenheim Stakes (Listed) · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved when landing a listed race (form hasn't worked out) at Naas in first-time visor on penultimate start. Wasn't in anything like the same form faced with soft ground in the Lowther subsequently. Solid chance at the weights this time, for all she probably lacks the scope of a few in here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f Yie 12816/05C8C8 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f60y Goo 12831/05C82 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f Gd 12312/0621 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 27 · OR - · 5f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/0611 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 84 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 84 par4/071OR 841 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 88 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 88 par22/071OR 881 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 102 · 6f GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 102 par20/081OR 102projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20York111th11th+0
2026-07-22Naas11st1st0
2026-07-04Naas14th4th0
2026-06-17Royal Ascot115th15th+0
2026-06-12York21st2nd−1
2026-05-31Listowel?2nd11th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0517/0620/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20263rd1/195%67%-0.28
31/05/20262nd11/893%86%-0.07
12/06/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
17/06/202615th66/10%46%+0.46
04/07/20264th15/890%67%-0.23
22/07/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
20/08/202611th25/10%38%+0.38