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Fighting Tears

2yo Filly · 9-0

Fairyhouse · Castlebridge Consignment Blenheim Stakes (Listed) · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Cheap purchase who attracted support when successful in big-field Curragh maiden on debut. That performance can be marked up, but she'll need to improve significantly in the face of much better opposition.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲7
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR - · 6f Goo 12716/08C8
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Curragh?1st10th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-4 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength51%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/08/20261st11/271%100%+0.29