10
Livenka
2yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 105
Fairyhouse · Castlebridge Consignment Blenheim Stakes (Listed) · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲5
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -5.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 12th | −7 |
| 2026-04-27 | Naas | ? | 3rd | 12th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |