11

Lola De Valence

2yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 83

Fairyhouse · Castlebridge Consignment Blenheim Stakes (Listed) · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Wide-margin winner of an ordinary novice at Nottingham second time up. Encountered softer ground when seemingly found out by step up to a Group 3 at Salisbury since. May again find this too competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move2
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 6f Goo 12821/0744 @ Nottingham 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 1283/0841 @ Salisbury 03/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 83 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 83 par3/091OR 83projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Salisbury19th9th+0
2026-08-03Nottingham41st5th3
2026-07-21Salisbury43rd7th3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/073/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength37%

Delivery trend +11.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/07/20263rd9/153%50%-0.03
03/08/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
03/09/20269th28/10%20%+0.20