4
Nail House
2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 98
Fairyhouse · Castlebridge Consignment Blenheim Stakes (Listed) · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | 1 | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -21.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |