1
April Mist
2yo Filly · 10-3 · OR 85
Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse.ie Nursery Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
77%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Curragh | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Naas | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Naas | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -15.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 16/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |