8
Lily Bear
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 59
Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse.ie Nursery Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 8.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Naas | BHA59 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Leopardstown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +18.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 23/07/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 03/08/2026 | 11th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/09/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 69% | +0.01 |