IvyArcIvyArc
4

Scarlet Dream

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 70

Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse.ie Nursery Handicap · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Caught the eye/finished with running left when beaten 5 lengths on qualifying run at Navan last time. Step back up in trip looks sure to suit and she's a likely improver with Colin Keane taking over on nursery bow.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 6f Std 12615/08C8C8 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR - · 7f Goo 12323/08C8C8 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 5f Goo 1282/09C8projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Navan?4th4th0
2026-08-23Naas?9th9th0
2026-08-15Dundalk?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0823/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength82%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/08/20267th50/10%54%+0.54
23/08/20269th150/10%47%+0.47
02/09/20264th16/116%57%+0.41