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9

Stormy Dawn

2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 54

Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse.ie Nursery Handicap · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sent off long odds all 3 maiden starts. Showed a bit more when beaten 13½ lengths on qualifying run at Naas (6f, 500/1). Has likely been campaigned with this switch to handicaps in mind, but she faces no easy task from 7 lb out of the weights.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 10.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 09/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 7f50y Goo 1289/07C8C8 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR - · 5f Goo 12814/08C8C8 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 5f205y Goo 12823/08C8projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Naas?6th6th0
2026-08-14Cork?12th12th0
2026-07-09Leopardstown?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0714/0823/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength89%

Delivery trend +28.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/07/202612th200/10%8%+0.08
14/08/202612th300/10%27%+0.27
23/08/20266th500/10%64%+0.64