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14

Are You In Or Out

5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 56

Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Return Of The Jumps On October 10th Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

35%

Place Prob

34%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enhanced her good record fresh when making a winning stable over C&D in May but has lost her form since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 10.3 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA65 @ Naas 04/08/2025 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 65 · 7f Goo 135 · below its mark04/08/2025 · OR 65 par4/0865OR 65BHA63 @ Fairyhouse 22/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR 63 · 6f Yie 134 · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 63 parBHA62 @ Curragh 04/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 62 · 6f Sft 132 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 62 par4/1062OR 62BHA61 @ Curragh 16/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 26 · OR 61 · 7f Yie 131 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 61 parBHA60 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 60 · 6f25y Gd 142 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 60 par28/0560OR 60BHA64 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 64 · 7f35y Sft 134 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 64 parBHA64 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 64 · 7f Goo 137 · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 64 par1/0764OR 64BHA63 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 63 · 5f180y Goo 133 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 63 parBHA61 @ Curragh 22/08/2026 · Pos 21st of 27 · OR 61 · 6f Goo 131 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 61 par22/0861OR 61projClass-projected finish: 15th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22CurraghBHA6121th21th0
2026-07-11NavanBHA638th8th0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA6411th11th0
2026-06-11LeopardstownBHA647th7th0
2026-05-28FairyhouseBHA601st1st0
2025-10-16CurraghBHA6114th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0816/101/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1882% of fieldRange 5-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength41%

Delivery trend +6.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/08/202513th9/153%20%-0.33
22/09/202512th7/282%35%-0.46
04/10/20257th10/147%57%+0.10
16/10/202514th20/10%48%+0.48
28/05/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
11/06/20267th8/158%45%-0.12
01/07/202611th20/10%41%+0.41
11/07/20268th11/142%50%+0.08
22/08/202621st33/10%23%+0.23