2
Bad Boy Rizz
3yo Colt · 10-2 · OR 74
Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Return Of The Jumps On October 10th Handicap · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: BHA79
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | BHA79 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Naas | BHA81 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Curragh | BHA82 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Cork | BHA85 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Naas | BHA84 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Navan | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1835% of fieldRange 12-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength8%
Delivery trend -10.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 05/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 82% | +0.00 |
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 83% | +0.28 |
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 91% | +0.36 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 02/09/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 53% | -0.26 |